Half of Polymarket’s high-risk military bets now pay off
▼ Summary
– Long-shot bets on Polymarket for military and defense actions have an average win rate of about 52%, compared to 25% in political markets and 14% overall.
– The Anti-Corruption Data Collective report analyzed over 400,000 Polymarket markets settled between January 2021 and March 2026.
– US prosecutors charged soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information to place Polymarket bets on a Venezuela mission, netting over $400,000.
– The charges against Van Dyke mark the first US prosecution of insider trading on prediction markets.
– The report warns that military and defense markets are structurally vulnerable to insider trading, threatening information security and disadvantaging regular bettors.
More than half of the so-called long-shot bets placed on Polymarket involving military action are actually winning, according to new data that raises fresh alarms about how prediction markets might be leaking sensitive national security information.
A study from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), a non-profit research group, examined wagers of $2,500 or more placed at odds of 35 percent or lower. In markets focused on military and defense actions, these high-risk bets succeeded roughly 52 percent of the time. That success rate stands in stark contrast to the broader platform. Across all politics-related markets, the win rate dropped to just 25 percent. For the entire platform, it fell further to only 14 percent.
The findings are likely to intensify scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers already worried about insider trading on prediction platforms. The core concern is that individuals with access to classified information could be placing bets that inadvertently reveal the timing or outcome of sensitive military operations before they are publicly known.
The report analyzed over 400,000 prediction markets settled on Polymarket between January 2021 and March 2026. Its release comes just weeks after US prosecutors charged a soldier involved in planning the January raid to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active duty service member, is accused of placing Polymarket wagers on the mission that earned him more than $400,000. He allegedly made roughly 13 bets totaling $33,034 on positions such as “US Forces in Venezuela” and “Maduro out” while in possession of classified intelligence. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty on Tuesday.
This marks the first US prosecution of insider trading on a prediction market. Earlier this year, Israel similarly filed charges against a reservist and a civilian accused of using classified information to bet on their country’s military operations via Polymarket.
According to the ACDC, political markets where outcomes can be swayed by small, decision-making groups, particularly those tied to military and defense, are “structurally vulnerable to insider trading.” The group warned that this dynamic not only threatens information security but also puts regular bettors at a clear disadvantage.
(Source: Ars Technica)
