Forecasters warn of below-average hurricane season, urge preparedness
▼ Summary
– Forecasters predict below-average hurricane activity for the season starting June 1, with 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes.
– A typical season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes; the season ends November 30.
– An expected El Niño in the Pacific is predicted to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear.
– Despite reduced activity, warm Atlantic waters could cause storms that do form to rapidly intensify.
– The National Weather Service urges preparedness, emphasizing that even one storm can be dangerous.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1, and this year, forecasters are predicting a quieter than usual period. The National Weather Service anticipates eight to 14 named storms, with three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher (winds of 111 mph or greater). For context, a normal season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The season runs through November 30.
Despite the below-average outlook, officials stress that the risk of a devastating storm remains real. “It just takes one,” warned Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Now is the time to start thinking about your hurricane preparedness.”
The primary driver behind this year’s subdued forecast is an expected El Niño pattern developing during the season. This natural climate phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, can alter weather patterns globally. While El Niño tends to boost hurricane activity in the Pacific, it has the opposite effect in the Atlantic, where it generates stronger wind shear that can tear storms apart before they strengthen.
However, there is a critical counterbalance. Warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to fuel the storms that do manage to form, allowing them to rapidly intensify. This trend is becoming more frequent as climate change continues to heat the world’s oceans. “When your ocean temperatures are warmer you get more intense hurricanes to develop,” explained Marc Alessi, a science fellow at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “So if there is an opportunity and a location for low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures, that is when you can get a very strong hurricane to form.” The message is clear: even a quiet season can produce a dangerous storm.
(Source: Ars Technica)
