Incoming El Niño to Bring Wildfires, Floods, and Severe Heatwaves
▼ Summary
– El Niño is expected to amplify heatwaves, droughts, and floods this year, but long-term warming from fossil fuels remains the main driver of climate extremes.
– El Niño, the warm phase of a Pacific Ocean temperature oscillation, releases ocean heat into the atmosphere, temporarily raising global surface temperatures by up to 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit.
– The consequences of a moderate or strong El Niño are now more damaging than decades ago because the global climate system is substantially warmer.
– A projected El Niño on top of the warmer climate poses a serious risk of unprecedented weather extremes not seen in similar historical events, according to climate scientist Fredi Otto.
– El Niño conditions in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 boosted Earth’s temperature to new records, but climatologists expect further record highs due to human-induced climate change regardless.
Scientists have confirmed that a brewing El Niño is expected to intensify heatwaves, droughts, and floods this year, though they caution that the underlying long-term warming driven by fossil fuel combustion remains the primary force behind extreme climate events.
El Niño represents the warm phase of a natural, semi-regular oscillation in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures. During this phase, vast reserves of stored ocean heat are released into the atmosphere, temporarily pushing the average annual global surface temperature up by as much as 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit.
Speaking during an online briefing this week, researchers emphasized that the consequences of a moderate or strong El Niño today are far more severe than those of comparable events from just a few decades ago. This is because the entire global climate system is now significantly warmer.
Should the anticipated El Niño develop on top of this already heated baseline, there is a “serious risk of unprecedented weather extremes” that would not have occurred during similar historical El Niños, warned Fredi Otto, a climate science professor at Imperial College London and lead researcher with World Weather Attribution, a group that analyzes how global warming influences extreme weather.
Previous El Niño conditions in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 helped push Earth’s long-running temperature fever to new records, and climatologists expect another temperature spike in the coming months. Yet, Otto stressed during the press conference that the planet’s temperature will continue to hit new highs regardless, “because of human-induced climate change.”
Since 2014, World Weather Attribution has examined the impact of global warming on more than 100 extreme climate events. Often, Otto noted, those studies work to isolate El Niño’s specific role in a given event, allowing scientists to more accurately measure the distinct effect of human-caused warming.
(Source: Ars Technica)
