Kremlin suspected of using shadow fleet to fly drones over Europe
▼ Summary
– A UK think tank assessed that mysterious drone flights over European airports and NATO bases may be part of a coordinated Kremlin campaign launched from Russian-linked commercial ships.
– The report used maritime tracking data to show Russian-linked ships were often nearby during drone incidents between August 2024 and February 2026.
– Of 144 drone sightings unlikely to be hobbyist or Ukraine-war related, 48% occurred over military bases, 26% over critical infrastructure, and 18% over civilian airports.
– The report notes the pattern of incursions matches Kremlin efforts to probe defenses and normalize low-level airspace violations below an armed attack threshold.
– The only incident directly attributed to Russia was in February 2026, when Sweden confirmed a drone launched from a Russian intelligence vessel near a French aircraft carrier.
Mysterious drone flights that caused major disruptions at European airports and flew over NATO military bases housing U.S. nuclear weapons may be part of a coordinated Kremlin campaign launched from Russian-linked commercial ships, according to a new assessment.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a UK-based think tank, released a report that used automatic identification system (AIS) maritime tracking data and other publicly available information to link Russian-linked vessels,including “shadow fleet” ships used to transport sanctioned Russian oil,to the vicinity of various drone incidents. The analysis covers a period from August 2024 to February 2026, during which drone sightings impacted a dozen NATO member countries and Ireland. The report highlights the vulnerability of European air defenses to low-cost drones used for surveillance and harassment.
The IISS identified 144 drone sightings across Europe during that timeframe that were unlikely to be hobbyist recreational drones or related to the war in Ukraine. Of these, 48 percent occurred over military bases, 26 percent over critical infrastructure like ports and energy or industrial sites, and 18 percent over civilian airports. Most sightings happened at night or in the early morning hours. Media reports typically described the drones as “professional” or “military-style” in appearance.
The report stops short of claiming all sightings were real or attributable to Russia. However, it describes the pattern of certain incursions as “consistent with the Kremlin’s effort to probe allied defenses, test civilian-military response mechanisms and normalize low-level airspace violations below the threshold of an armed attack.”
The only incident directly tied to Russia occurred in February 2026, when the Swedish military confirmed it spotted and jammed a drone launched from the Russian signals intelligence vessel Zhigulevsk in Swedish territorial waters. The launch happened while the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its escort ships were nearby during a visit to Sweden. While this remains the sole confirmed example, it demonstrates that Russian-linked ships have the capability to launch drones at sea for surveillance purposes.
(Source: Ars Technica)
