Ocean Damage Doubles Climate Change Costs
▼ Summary
– A new study finds the global economic cost of greenhouse gas emissions is nearly double previous estimates, reaching $97.20 per ton of CO2 when ocean damages are included.
– This is the first social cost of carbon (SCC) assessment to account for ocean-related damages like coral loss and fisheries disruption, which cost nearly $2 trillion annually.
– Researchers state that prior economic models effectively valued ocean loss at zero, overlooking its central role in the economic impact of climate change.
– The social cost of carbon is a key tool for incorporating climate damages into economic decisions, used by agencies like the US EPA for policy assessment.
– The calculation and use of the SCC can be politically contentious, involving debates over which damages and sectors are counted and how harms are valued.
The true economic burden of climate change has been dramatically underestimated, with new research revealing that incorporating the immense damage to our oceans nearly doubles the global cost. A groundbreaking study now includes the financial impact of collapsing coral reefs, disrupted fisheries, and destroyed coastal infrastructure, adding close to $2 trillion in annual damages to the ledger. This pivotal shift fundamentally alters how policymakers and economists must calculate the price of carbon emissions, moving the ocean from an environmental concern to a core economic liability.
For years, critical calculations of climate-related economic harm have largely ignored the sea. The social cost of carbon (SCC), a vital metric used to price the damage from each ton of carbon dioxide released, previously assigned no monetary value to ocean impacts. This oversight painted an incomplete and misleading picture of the financial risks we face.
“We’ve been estimating the economic cost of climate change while effectively assigning a value of zero to the ocean,” explained Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, who led the research. “Ocean loss is not just an environmental issue, but a central part of the economic story of climate change.” His work represents the first SCC assessment to comprehensively account for marine damages.
The revised figures are stark. Excluding ocean harm, the social cost of carbon stands at $51 per ton. When the ocean, covering 70 percent of the planet, is factored in, that cost soars to $97.20 per ton. Given that global CO2 emissions reached an estimated 41.6 billion tons in 2024, this 91 percent increase represents a monumental financial impact. This metric is a crucial tool for governments and international bodies, designed to integrate climate damages into economic planning and policy decisions.
“It is one of the most efficient tools we have for internalizing climate damages into economic decision-making,” noted Amy Campbell, a United Nations climate advisor. However, the application of the SCC has often been politically fraught. Debates rage over which damages are counted, which economic sectors are included, and how to value harms that occur across different timescales.
This political contention has led to inconsistent use. While organizations like the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have historically employed SCC calculations to evaluate policies, past administrations have issued directives to disregard the data in official analyses unless legally mandated. This inconsistency highlights the challenge of translating sobering scientific and economic assessments into sustained, actionable policy.
The new research underscores that any credible climate finance strategy or carbon pricing mechanism must now account for the ocean’s vast and vulnerable economy. Ignoring it is not only an ecological misstep but a profound economic error with trillion-dollar consequences.
(Source: Ars Technica)