Investing in a Fragmented World: One Firm’s Strategy

The current global climate is marked by deep cultural rifts, sharp political divides, and escalating geopolitical tensions. For any investor seeking startups with the potential to achieve venture-scale growth, this environment presents a formidable challenge.

Kompas VC, with offices in Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Berlin, and Tel Aviv, has crafted a regionally attuned investment strategy to navigate and capitalize on this fragmented world. The firm is backing this approach with fresh capital, announcing a new €160 million fund ($187.5 million) to TechCrunch.

“We see the world really falling into three main spheres of economic activity, of political activity , the U. S., Europe, and China,” said Sebastian Peck, a partner at Kompas VC. “We certainly see today that these three domains follow very, very different trajectories.”

Kompas has built its identity around backing startups that address core industrial competitiveness issues, including manufacturing, supply chains, critical infrastructure, and sustainability. While these themes remain relevant, their emphasis varies significantly by region.

“There was a lot of enthusiasm around these themes back in 2021,” Peck recalled of the year Kompas was founded. “In 2026, we’re in a very, very different paradigm. It’s all about AI, it’s all about fast growth, very explosive growth. A lot of big topics that we partially play to but also are not really part of what we stand for.”

“Our focus is in the physical world, anything around producing physical goods,” he added, noting that Kompas concentrates on startups working on decarbonization, productivity, and risk management. “We’ve found our niche.”

That niche is surprisingly broad. Reshoring is a priority in nearly every major economy, and for many startups, these markets offer sufficient scale for a firm like Kompas.

While modest compared to some venture funds, Kompas’s new fund provides ample firepower to lead early-stage rounds with checks between €3 million and €5 million.

As a European fund, Kompas has strong access to regional founders and startups. However, it must carefully assess how global fragmentation might limit a company’s ability to deliver venture returns. Peck points to prefab housing as a prime example. While widely adopted in Scandinavia, it remains uncommon in Germany or the rest of Europe, let alone the United States.

“It feels like such an intuitive solution. It’s a product that is effectively an industrial product. It should be highly scalable,” he said. The reason it fails to gain traction outside Scandinavia, he argues, is more about “cultural conditioning” than technology. “In that industry, if the U. S. isn’t the market you can go to, you need to look very, very carefully at whether there’s a large enough addressable market.”

This fragmentation extends beyond housing. In Europe, sustainability remains broadly attractive, while in the U. S., the theme has lost some of its earlier momentum.

Yet, Peck acknowledges that conditions can shift rapidly. “We are investing over 10-, 15-year horizons. That’s a few legislative periods to bridge, and sometimes things swing in unexpected directions.”

This shifting landscape presents both a challenge and an opportunity for a smaller investor like Kompas. “I think there’s a great space for highly focused, highly specialized, smaller funds like ours to be the first check-in and bring sweep up certain themes and certain founders,” Peck said.