Apple execs to discuss China, tariffs but not foldable iPhone: Kalshi traders
▼ Summary
– Apple will report earnings on Thursday, following the announcement that CEO Tim Cook will leave in September and be replaced by John Ternus.
– Traders on Kalshi believe Apple may discuss its creator studio, streaming platform, and another tech company’s AI model on the call.
– Traders place high odds (98%) that Apple will mention China on the call.
– Traders place similarly high odds (96%) that Apple will mention tariffs on the call.
– Traders are more divided on whether Apple will discuss other topics beyond China and tariffs.
On Apple’s first earnings call following a major leadership shakeup, Kalshi traders are placing bets on what executives will , and won’t , discuss. The conversation is expected to touch on China, tariffs, and even a rival’s AI model, but the odds of any mention of a foldable iPhone are strikingly low.
The tech giant is set to release its quarterly results after the market closes Thursday, just over a week after announcing that Tim Cook will step down as CEO in September. His successor will be John Ternus, currently senior vice president of hardware engineering. This transition marks one of the most significant C-suite shifts in Apple’s recent history, and traders are watching closely for how leadership will address key strategic issues.
According to Kalshi, a prediction market platform, traders see a near-certain likelihood that Apple will discuss China and tariffs on the call, assigning 98% and 96% odds, respectively. These topics remain central as Apple navigates supply chain complexities and geopolitical tensions. But beyond those, the betting landscape becomes more fragmented.
Other potential discussion points include Apple’s creator studio, its streaming platform, and even a megacap tech company’s AI model , possibly referring to partnerships or competitive dynamics in artificial intelligence. Yet one topic appears highly unlikely: the foldable iPhone. Despite persistent rumors, traders give it minimal odds of being mentioned, suggesting the company is not ready to signal any imminent product launch in that category.
As Apple enters a new era under Ternus, the earnings call will offer a rare glimpse into the company’s priorities. Whether the focus remains on existing challenges or hints at future innovations, the market will be parsing every word.
(Source: CNBC)
