Data center emissions could soon rival entire nations

New gas infrastructure tied to just 11 data center campuses across the United States could generate more greenhouse gases annually than the entire country of Morocco produced in 2024. According to emissions estimates extracted from air permit documents reviewed by WIRED, these natural gas projects,built to power data centers for leading AI firms such as OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and xAI,have the potential to release over 129 million tons of greenhouse gases each year.

As technology companies scramble to secure massive energy deals for hundreds of new data centers nationwide, these projects represent only a fraction of the potential climate impact from the AI boom. The infrastructure on this list, compiled by WIRED, is designed to operate largely off the grid, providing dedicated power to data centers in a trend known as behind-the-meter power. Facing long waits for traditional utility connections and growing public backlash over potential rate hikes, developers are increasingly turning to self-generated energy. These projects are either announced or under construction, with companies already filing air permit applications with state agencies.

Michael Thomas, founder of clean energy research firm Cleanview, has been tracking gas permits for data centers nationwide. He describes behind-the-meter power as “a crazy acceleration of emissions.” He adds, “It’s almost like we thought we were on the downside of the Industrial Revolution, retiring coal and gas, and now we have a new hump where we’re going to rise. That terrifies me in a lot of ways.”

One of the earliest and most controversial examples is in Memphis, Tennessee. xAI made national headlines in 2024 after installing gas turbines at its first data center campus, Colossus 1, to rapidly develop its AI model, Grok. Residents in the surrounding low-income Black community, concerned about air pollution, protested the turbines. The EPA eventually approved their use last year, and last month, regulators granted a permit for an xAI affiliate at its second campus in Southaven, Mississippi, despite widespread opposition. The NAACP filed a lawsuit against xAI last week, alleging illegal operation of the turbines.

xAI’s gas turbines also represent a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Air permit applications for both the Colossus campus in Memphis and the nearby Colossus 2 campus in Southaven indicate that the turbines at each site could produce over 6.4 million tons of CO2 equivalents annually. Combined, that equals roughly the emissions from more than 30 average-sized natural gas plants or enough energy to power 1.5 million homes. xAI did not respond to a request for comment.

Microsoft is reportedly exploring purchasing power from a Chevron-backed natural gas project in West Texas. According to its permit, that single project could emit over 11.5 million tons of greenhouse gases each year,more than Jamaica’s entire annual emissions. Melanie Nakagawa, Microsoft’s chief sustainability officer, told WIRED in a statement, “Microsoft takes a portfolio approach to energy, leveraging a range of solutions to meet reliability needs while continuing to invest in carbon-free electricity. In certain regions, dedicated onsite energy infrastructure may be part of that portfolio, particularly where grid constraints limit the pace of deployment.”

The emissions projections for these and other projects on WIRED’s list were drawn directly from publicly available air permit documents in state databases and materials collected by Cleanview and Oil and Gas Watch, a database maintained by the Environmental Integrity Project. Actual greenhouse gas emissions from power plants are typically lower than permit estimates, as air permit modeling assumes a plant running at full capacity constantly,rarely the case for grid-connected plants that go offline for maintenance or adjust to demand fluctuations.

“Permitted emission numbers represent a theoretical, conservative scenario, not the actual projected emissions,” Alex Schott, director of communications at Williams Companies, which is building three behind-the-meter power plants in Ohio for Meta, told WIRED in an email. Internal modeling, he added, suggests actual emissions could be “potentially two-thirds less than what’s on paper.”

Even so, the projections remain substantial. If actual emissions are half of permit numbers, they could still exceed Norway’s 2024 emissions. This is equivalent to emissions from more than 153 average-sized natural gas plants, according to the EPA. WIRED’s analysis excludes emissions from backup generators and turbines on data center campuses, which produce smaller amounts.

Energy researcher Jon Koomey estimates that while efficient grid-connected gas plants might emit 40 to 50 percent of permitted numbers, data center emissions could be much closer to modeled levels because they don’t respond to customer demand. This is reflected in a November permit application for a data center built by AI company Crusoe, involved in three projects on WIRED’s list. The application describes the facility as “unlike a traditional power plant” that must “respond to the demands of a constantly varying grid. At the data center, the power requirements do not vary significantly.” Andrew Schmitt, Crusoe’s senior director of communications, told WIRED, “We view gas as a critical bridge,not the destination,as we work to build AI infrastructure that meets the scale of demand while expanding access to innovative forms of energy over time.”

Koomey notes that a global shortage of the most efficient gas turbines, partly due to the data center race, is pushing some developers toward less efficient models, forcing longer operation and higher emissions. “Data center operators’ belief is that the value being delivered by the servers is much, much more than the cost of running these inefficient power plants all the time,” he says.

Gas projects tied to the Stargate Project, a massive multicompany AI effort originally launched to build infrastructure for OpenAI, also loom large on WIRED’s list. Stargate campuses are under development in Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Permit documents for just three Stargate-affiliated natural gas projects,one powering a campus near Abilene, Texas, and two supporting Project Jupiter in New Mexico,show a combined potential to emit over 24 million tons of greenhouse gases annually.

“We are committed to protecting ratepayers while building the infrastructure needed for U. S. AI leadership,” OpenAI spokesperson Aaron McLear said in a statement. “Where near term natural gas is required to ensure reliable power, we work with partners to use modern, efficient generation while helping accelerate clean power and grid modernization.”

Oracle spokesperson Julia Allyn Fishel told WIRED that a “modification” to the Project Jupiter application is in progress, “which is expected to materially lower emissions.” The company did not provide new estimates, which the New Mexico Environment Department has not yet released. Fishel added, “Oracle is committed to paying our own way on energy costs while implementing the best energy solution for each community so that ratepayers’ bills and electric grid reliability are not impacted by our AI data centers.”

A fourth gas plant on the main Stargate campus in Abilene could permit over 7.8 million tons of CO2 equivalents annually, according to application documents. This plant is being built by Crusoe for Microsoft. The companies announced in late March that Crusoe would construct new buildings on the Abilene campus, including a power plant, to support Microsoft’s AI infrastructure. Microsoft declined to comment.

Some projects have an even larger potential carbon footprint than Stargate. Outside Amarillo, Texas, Fermi is building what it calls the President Donald J. Trump Advanced Energy and Intelligence Campus, a data center campus targeting 17 gigawatts. Fermi emphasizes its use of “clean” natural gas, but documents show that maximum emissions for two gas projects combined could exceed 40.3 million tons of CO2 equivalents annually,more than all power sources in Connecticut.

About five hours south, near Fort Stockton, Pacifico Energy is developing what it claims is the largest single energy project in the country: a 7.2 gigawatt data center campus powered by a gas project permitted to emit over 33 million tons of greenhouse gases each year. Pacifico did not respond to a request for comment.

Major tech companies that have pledged carbon reductions acknowledge that the AI infrastructure build-out is complicating their goals. The sheer scale of these gas projects shows how easily a few fossil fuel plants can tip the balance.

Meta, for example, is linked to three behind-the-meter gas projects in Ohio: two powering a data center in New Albany and one for a facility in Wood County. Together, permit documents show they could emit a maximum of 5.5 million tons of CO2 equivalents annually. Meta’s 2025 sustainability report claims it has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 23.8 million metric tons since 2021. Yet even if these three Ohio projects emit just half of their permit limits, that would equal over 10 percent of those stated reductions over four years. Meta declined to comment on the record.

The Ohio projects are not Meta’s only fossil fuel plans. Most major AI companies building behind-the-meter power are also pursuing utility arrangements for grid-connected plants. Meta has an agreement with Entergy to help power a massive data center, Hyperion, in Richland Parish, Louisiana. A gas plant being built by Entergy there to meet Meta’s needs could emit nearly 5.2 million tons of greenhouse gases annually, according to its application. Earlier this month, Meta announced it would pay for seven new natural gas plants totaling over five gigawatts, serving both its data centers and Entergy customers. The announcement states these facilities are being built with future carbon capture capabilities, which could reduce some emissions.

Data center developers have rapidly embraced behind-the-meter options. Research released in January from Global Energy Monitor showed that nearly 100 gigawatts of behind-the-meter natural gas power for data centers were in the US development pipeline at the start of 2026, up from just 4 gigawatts in early 2024. Several massive, multi-gigawatt projects have been announced since, illustrating the accelerating race. In March, companies linked to projects on this list signed the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, a nonbinding Trump administration agreement asking AI firms to “build, bring, or buy” power generation. Experts told WIRED the pledge was largely symbolic, with little control over policies affecting consumer bills.

Last month, three Senate Democrats sent questions about data center emissions to leading tech companies, including OpenAI, Meta, and Fermi. In response to WIRED’s queries about its air permit carbon emissions, Fermi provided a copy of its reply to lawmakers, urging support for nuclear energy and its campus’s inclusion in foreign nuclear investment deals. The company also claimed its behind-the-meter power was exempt from greenhouse gas reduction regulations since it wouldn’t connect to the grid. “Clean natural gas is fundamental to the energy transition and is the logical bridge to nuclear for a nation that cannot afford to wait,” the letter states. Fermi did not answer whether it would retire its gas turbines once planned nuclear capacity comes online.

Not all gas facilities WIRED examined will likely be built; an air permit doesn’t guarantee construction. Neither Fermi nor the GW Ranch facility, the two largest emitters on the list, have secured a client yet. On Friday, Fermi announced its CEO would step down immediately; while remaining on the board, he called for the company to be sold. Stocks plunged over 20 percent, and the CFO also departed. The Stargate project has generated high-profile headlines as OpenAI reshuffles strategy; the company paused a planned UK data center expansion this week. Turbine shortages, labor and construction costs, and energy shocks in the Middle East are just a few potential hurdles. Most companies are also racing to build renewable energy and nuclear power, seeking any available source.

But Thomas sees behind-the-meter gas power as a potentially lasting trend for data centers, with troubling climate implications. “The thing that has kept me up at night and is starting to really worry me,” he says, “is what happens if this gets 10 times bigger?”