Why Oil Companies Fear Climate Attribution Science
▼ Summary
– Greenhouse gases from human activity trap extra solar energy, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts, and heavy precipitation.
– Climate attribution science has matured significantly over the past decade, now able to determine with greater confidence whether specific disasters are linked to climate change.
– The US National Academies report acknowledges ongoing limits in attribution science and recommends steps to address them.
– The fossil fuel industry views attribution science as a threat because it could facilitate legal liability for climate damages.
– Republicans in Congress and state governments have responded by threatening funding for the National Academies.
Climate change is driven primarily by the greenhouse gases we release into the atmosphere, which trap additional solar energy. That extra energy raises the probability of extreme weather: longer, more intense heat waves and droughts, punctuated by heavy downpours. Yet such events have occurred naturally in the past, so how do we determine whether a specific disaster was made more likely by climate change?
This question carries weight for everything from building codes to emergency preparedness. Fortunately, there is encouraging progress. A report released Thursday by the US National Academies of Sciences concludes that the field of climate attribution has matured significantly over the past decade and can now answer some of these questions with much greater confidence. The report also acknowledges important limitations and recommends steps to address them.
The clear implication is that climate attribution is now recognized as normal, mainstream science. The fossil fuel industry, however, sees this as a threat. If scientists can link specific extreme events to climate change, it becomes easier to hold companies liable for damages. That prospect has sparked a backlash, with Republicans in Congress and several state governments now threatening the National Academies’ funding.
A Decade of Progress
Heat waves, extreme rainfall, and other severe weather have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Since the end of the last glacial period, humanity has enjoyed a relatively stable climate, with historic extremes falling within a narrow range. But we are now leaving that stable period behind, and we should expect events that exceed the natural variability we are used to. The question remains: can we recognize them when they happen?
(Source: Ars Technica)
