Google AI Overviews Reduce Clicks Without Boosting Satisfaction: Report

A randomized field experiment has revealed that Google’s AI Overviews reduce organic clicks to external websites by 38% on queries where they appear, while self-reported search satisfaction remains nearly unchanged when these summaries are removed. This working paper, posted to SSRN this month by researchers at the Indian School of Business and Carnegie Mellon University, is described as the first randomized field experiment to test how AI Overviews affect user behavior in a real browsing environment.

To conduct the study, authors Saharsh Agarwal and Ananya Sen developed a Chrome extension that randomly assigned 1,065 U. S. participants to one of three groups. Recruited via Prolific, these individuals used Chrome on desktop and met minimum browsing-history thresholds, ensuring the sample represents active desktop Chrome users rather than the broader Google audience. The control group experienced Google Search normally. A “Hide AIO” group had the extension remove AI Overviews in real time. A third group was redirected to Google’s AI Mode for all searches. Each participant took part for two weeks between January and February 2026. The experiment was pre-registered with the AEA RCT Registry before data collection, and over 95% of users in the Hide AIO group did not detect any changes during the study.

Key findings show that AI Overviews appeared on 42% of queries. Removing them increased outbound clicks from 0.38 to 0.61 per search, reducing outbound organic clicks by 38% on triggered queries. Zero-click search rose from 54% to 72%. The strongest effects occurred when AI Overviews appeared at the top of the page, which happened 85% of the time. Removing top-position AI Overviews nearly doubled outbound clicks, while lower ones had no effect. Sponsored clicks and search frequency remained steady, indicating substitution between AI Overviews and organic visits.

The user experience finding came from an endline survey using a 1-to-5 Likert scale to assess participants’ search experience. Responses from the control and Hide AIO groups were nearly identical across all measures, including satisfaction, information quality, and ease of finding information. The researchers concluded that AI Overviews “divert traffic away from publishers without delivering measurable improvements in user experience.”

Participants directed to AI Mode had lower outbound click rates, higher zero-click rates, and lower satisfaction at endline compared to other groups. The authors note these results are exploratory, as higher attrition, some uninstalling of the extension, or finding workarounds may have influenced outcomes.

This matters because independent measurements of AI Overviews’ impact on traffic have mostly been correlational. Pew Research found users click 8% of the time with AI Overviews, compared to 15% without. Ahrefs analyzed GSC data and reported a 58% drop in click-through rate for top-ranking pages when AI Overviews appeared. This experiment adds a different approach by randomly assigning users to see AI Overviews or not, isolating the causal effect. Google VP Liz Reid claims AI Overviews cut “bounce clicks,” but provides no data backing the user-benefit side. The Agarwal and Sen paper tested a related question with a randomized design, finding no measurable change in satisfaction or ease of finding info.

The paper is a draft on SSRN and is not peer-reviewed. Authors will add more results, and we will provide an update if findings change.