Forrester’s 2026 AI & Tech Leadership Forecast

A new forecast from Forrester indicates that by 2026, artificial intelligence will enter a phase of practical maturity, moving beyond initial hype toward dependable, everyday functionality. Technology leadership, meanwhile, will pivot decisively toward high-performance strategies that prioritize measurable business outcomes over experimental projects. This shift reflects a broader industry trend where effectiveness and integration take precedence over novelty.

Within the AI domain, the focus is expected to transition from speculative agents to foundational governance and literacy. Organizations will concentrate on embedding AI into routine data operations, ensuring these tools deliver consistent value rather than just theoretical potential. Several key developments are anticipated.

A significant portion of enterprise AI budgets, roughly 25%, will be postponed until 2027. The difficulty in linking AI initiatives directly to profit and loss statements means fewer than a third of companies can demonstrate clear financial returns. Consequently, chief financial officers will become more deeply involved in approving AI projects. This heightened financial scrutiny will slow down production rollouts and cause many proof-of-concept efforts to be abandoned, leading to the deferred spending.

Another major trend involves vendor diversity. No single hyperscaler or platform has yet achieved dominance in agentic AI, creating a fragmented market. This environment will push most large enterprises to construct composable “agentlake” architectures. These integrated systems will manage and coordinate disparate AI agent deployments, enabling sophisticated multi-agent applications that no single vendor can currently support.

Regulatory complexity is also driving organizational change. With a growing patchwork of legislation, including the EU AI Act, nearly 60% of Fortune 100 companies are predicted to appoint a dedicated head of AI governance by 2026. Leading firms like Sony, Bank of America, and UBS have already taken this step to navigate the evolving compliance landscape.

According to Frederic Giron, a Vice President and senior research director at Forrester, “By 2026, CIOs in the Asia-Pacific region will move from demonstrating that digital transformation works to amplifying the value it generates. Success will be measured not by the sophistication of their AI models, but by how seamlessly those models integrate into end-to-end processes to drive both efficiency and growth. The most effective CIOs will be those who balance these complex priorities, acting as strategic partners who connect technology investment directly to business outcomes.”

Sudha Maheshwari, another Vice President and research director at Forrester, added, “Facing a market correction, enterprises will prioritize function over flair. CFOs will be drawn into more AI-related decisions. Companies will spread their investments across agentic ecosystems and reallocate talent as AI agents assume more routine tasks. Forward-thinking organizations will invest in AI governance and fluency training to manage risk and carefully navigate their AI journey.”

On the technology leadership front, executives are under increasing pressure from unmet AI promises, budget constraints, and economic uncertainty. This is compelling a strategic shift toward high-performance IT models built on clean data and adaptable platforms. In 2026, this evolution will transform chief information officers from passive order-takers into proactive strategic partners, demanding rigorous scenario planning to manage volatility while assuming greater risk for the potential of increased recognition and influence.

Key predictions for tech leaders include the expectation that a quarter of CIOs will be called upon to resolve AI failures initiated by other business units. While agentic systems offer great potential, lagging adoption and accumulating accuracy issues will lead CEOs to task CIOs with fixing the problems. Technology leaders must prepare by strengthening governance, clearly defining valid use cases, and identifying weaknesses in their agentic grounding strategies.

Furthermore, geopolitical IT asset mapping will become a top-five strategic priority for the CIO. Managing IT assets is already challenging, and rising global instability complicates it further. With only 30% of CEOs having clear visibility into political risks across their operations and supply chains, CIOs must treat IT architecture as a geopolitical asset. This involves expanding asset visibility and collaborating across business functions to ensure continuity and compliance with regional regulations.

In a bold move, one global CIO is forecasted to declare “tech debt bankruptcy” and outsource its entire management. Frustrated by the endless cycle of maintenance and declining trust from fellow executives, this leader will hire an external partner to handle the complete legacy technology stack. With C-suite backing, the internal team will then be freed to focus entirely on deploying a new, greenfield solution from the ground up.

“2026 will not be for the faint of heart, or the faint of budget,” remarked Mark Mochia, a Vice President and research director at Forrester. “Technology leaders are about to face a year that’s part rollercoaster, part chess match, and part improv comedy. CIOs will receive larger budgets, but also more headaches, greater volatility, and intensified pressure to prove that every dollar spent delivers tangible value.”

Outlining a survival strategy for this challenging period, Mochia recommended, “First, keep your governance toolkit ready for unexpected AI rescue missions. Second, learn to articulate business value clearly, because your CFO will demand more than vague promises. Finally, embrace the new normal: your workforce will be a blend of humans, bots, and gig workers. Leading this diverse mix will require a renewed emphasis on leadership capabilities within your teams.”

(Source: ITWire Australia)