Thinking Machines in Talks to Raise $6bn: The Information

Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Lab is currently in advanced negotiations to secure a massive injection of capital, with reports indicating a target raise between $5 billion and $6 billion. This latest funding round values the company at a pre-money figure of at least $40 billion, marking a significant escalation from its previous valuation milestones. While early speculation suggested smaller figures, the current scope of the deal involves major institutional players, including Accel, which has been an investor since the seed stage, and Nvidia, which is expected to contribute approximately half of the total capital, ranging from $2.5 billion to $3 billion.

The origin of these specific financial details is somewhat indirect. Reporter Amir Efrati noted that the information was sourced from Andreessen Horowitz, which had briefed its own limited partners regarding the potential transaction. This means the data represents internal backer communications rather than an official public announcement from the company itself. The initial reporting by The Information on September 3 cited a much lower raise of over $1 billion, but this was quickly updated to reflect the higher, more accurate range once Nvidia’s involvement became clear. Most subsequent coverage initially latched onto the outdated lower figure before corrections could propagate through the media landscape.

Infrastructure Demands and Strategic Partnerships

The necessity for such substantial capital becomes apparent when examining Thinking Machines’ infrastructure commitments. In March, the lab announced a multi-year partnership with Nvidia to deploy at least one gigawatt of Vera Rubin systems, with initial deployments scheduled for early 2027. A gigawatt-scale operation places the lab in direct competition with well-capitalized rivals for essential resources like chips, power, and data center space. Under the earlier, smaller funding estimates, the available capital would have covered only a fraction of these costs. However, a raise of five to six billion dollars, particularly with Nvidia supplying half of it, creates a financially viable path to support this ambitious hardware rollout.

Thinking Machines operates under a unique business model that blends open-source development with commercial infrastructure services. The lab releases models like Inkling, its 975-billion-parameter mixture-of-experts system capable of handling text, images, and audio, without charging for the weights themselves. Instead, revenue is generated through Tinker, a platform that reached general availability in December 2025. Tinker provides access to GPU clusters for training and fine-tuning open models, allowing customers to maintain control over their data and algorithms via an API while Thinking Machines manages the hardware and billing. This setup supports both the lab’s own models and external model families.

From Nvidia’s perspective, this arrangement offers a straightforward commercial logic: every job processed on Tinker utilizes hardware that Nvidia has sold. By funding Thinking Machines, Nvidia effectively secures demand for its own products, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. This pattern extends beyond this specific deal; Nvidia also recently participated in Nscale’s pre-IPO financing, illustrating a broader strategy of supporting companies that drive consumption of its chip technology. The market has largely interpreted this closed-loop investment as a growth driver rather than a risk.

Valuation Multiples and Revenue Claims

Determining the exact valuation multiple for this round is challenging due to the lack of audited financials. Stephanie Palazzolo, a reporter covering the story, indicated that the lab is generating annualized revenue in the hundreds of millions. RuntimeWire highlighted that this figure is self-reported by individuals close to the business and not independently verified. TechCrunch, citing a different source, estimated revenue at over $100 million. Against a pre-money valuation of $40 billion, this implies a revenue multiple between roughly 80x and 400x, depending on where the actual revenue falls within the “hundreds of millions” range. Such multiples are exceptionally steep for a company at this stage.

Amir Efrati described the pricing as lower than what the company originally desired but still high given its youth and revenue base. For context, the seed round in July 2025 raised $2 billion at a $12 billion post-money valuation, led by Andreessen Horowitz with Accel and Nvidia participating. By late last year, the company sought valuations of $50 billion or more, though those talks did not conclude. The current offer is at least 20% below that previous ask but represents more than a threefold increase from the seed round. It is crucial to note that the $40 billion figure is pre-money, meaning a top-end raise would push the post-money valuation closer to $46 billion.

Leadership Stability and Governance

The company’s journey has been marked by significant leadership turnover, which contributed to the failure of its previous high-valuation attempts. Co-founders Andrew Tulloch, Barret Zoph, and Luke Metz departed in late 2025 and early 2026, with Zoph and Metz joining OpenAI. Zoph later moved to Google, suggesting his time at OpenAI was transitional. Lilian Weng stepped down in July due to health reasons before rejoining OpenAI shortly after. Despite these exits, co-founder and chief scientist John Schulman remained, and the company brought in Soumith Chintala, co-creator of PyTorch, to lead technical operations after Zoph’s departure. Both recent product launches were executed under this revised team structure.

A critical factor in the current deal is the governance structure surrounding Mira Murati. She retains voting control over the board on major corporate decisions, regardless of other directors’ opinions. Murati returned to public view in June after eighteen months of relative silence, issuing warnings about AI governance and unveiling unexpected products. Investors committing capital at this elevated valuation are essentially betting on Murati’s judgment and strategic direction, accepting limited recourse if those judgments prove flawed.

Market Confidence and Uncertainty

Several conditions must align for this funding round to succeed. Accel must be willing to invest at a price point that peers rejected ten months ago. Nvidia must continue to view funding the demand side of its own market as a rational strategy. Finally, the unverified revenue claims must grow sufficiently to justify the steep valuation multiples. As of now, none of these elements are finalized. All figures describe ongoing talks sourced from venture firm briefings. Given that the company failed to close a similar large-scale deal last year, significant uncertainty remains regarding whether this ambitious raise will materialize.