The Next 36 Months: A New Look for Apple, Google, and Meta?
▼ Summary
– The Vergecast episode predicts dramatic changes for Apple, Google, and Meta by 2028 due to regulatory, AI, and internal pressures, suggesting these companies will be unrecognizable in 36 months.
– Google faces significant antitrust challenges, potentially leading to asset divestitures and a need to diversify beyond its core search business, which is showing signs of fragility.
– Apple may lose its $20 billion annual payment from Google and faces pressure to change app store policies, impacting revenue; it is also perceived as lagging in AI development.
– The discussion highlights an inevitable transformation in Big Tech, driven by regulatory pressures and AI advancements, posing existential threats and opportunities for these companies.
This week’s Vergecast episode, hosted by Eli, David Pierce, and Richard Lawler, delved into the seismic shifts rattling the foundations of Big Tech. From Google’s high-stakes antitrust battle and the disruptive potential of AI to Meta’s ongoing legal wrangles, the discussions painted a picture of an industry at a crossroads. We’ll break down the key insights from the podcast, supplemented by broader industry analysis, into a series of articles exploring these critical developments. Tackling Article 2:
Vergecast hosts foresee dramatic changes for Apple, Google, and Meta driven by regulation, AI, and internal pressures. What will they look like by 2028?
In 36 months, these companies will not be recognizable as they are today.” This bold prediction from the hosts of the Vergecast -Eli, David Pierce, and Richard Lawler- set the tone for a compelling discussion on the transformative pressures facing tech titans Apple, Google, and Meta. The episode explored a confluence of regulatory headwinds, technological disruptions, and internal challenges that suggest a period of profound change for these industry leaders.
For Google, the ongoing antitrust trial concerning its search and ad tech businesses looms large. The Vergecast hosts highlighted a growing sentiment that the trial will result in “significant lasting consequences“. There’s a tangible concern that Google might be forced to divest major assets, such as its Chrome browser, parts of its Android operations, or its ad exchange. Compounding these legal challenges, Google’s core search business is showing signs of “fragility,” with reported decreases in search volumes on platforms like Safari. As discussed on the podcast, if its search dominance wanes, Google may need to aggressively diversify and bolster its other ventures. Broader market analysis reinforces this, with stock forecasts showing steady but potentially volatile growth as Google navigates these antitrust issues and invests heavily in AI to maintain its competitive edge.
Apple, too, faces a period of adjustment. The Vergecast pointed to the likely loss of its lucrative $20 billion annual payment from Google for default search engine status on Safari. Furthermore, evolving app store policies, potentially allowing companies to bypass the “Apple tax,” and pressure to permit alternative app stores could significantly impact Apple’s revenue streams. The hosts portrayed Apple in a “defensive position,” acknowledging the eventual replacement of the iPhone as its flagship product and noting a perception that Apple is currently “behind in AI development”. Stock analysts predict continued growth for Apple, driven by its strong brand and expansion into emerging markets, but also highlight potential headwinds from increased competition and the outcome of regulatory scrutiny. The company’s foray into new areas like augmented reality with products like the Vision Pro is seen as crucial for its future trajectory.
Meanwhile, Meta is navigating its own set of trials, though the Vergecast hosts speculated it “might avoid significant consequences” from its current legal battles. However, the persistent challenge from TikTok remains a key factor; if TikTok continues its ascent, Meta could look “very different in three years“. One intriguing possibility floated on the podcast was the spin-off of Facebook as a separate entity, allowing Mark Zuckerberg to focus on Instagram, WhatsApp, and the metaverse. The hosts also touched upon admissions from Meta executives that “they’re not doing a very good job” in certain areas and the company’s “obsession” with fostering friend-to-friend sharing. Recent reports indicate Meta is indeed facing intense legal scrutiny, particularly concerning its past acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp and the impact of its platforms on younger users.
The overarching theme from the Vergecast discussion and wider industry observation is one of inevitable transformation. Regulatory pressures are forcing a re-evaluation of business models built on market dominance, while technological advancements, especially in AI, are creating both immense opportunities and existential threats. Whether these tech giants will successfully navigate this turbulent period and emerge stronger, or be fundamentally reshaped by these forces, remains the critical question for the next three years.
