Google employee allegedly used insider info for $1.2M Polymarket win

Federal prosecutors have charged a Google employee with fraud, alleging he used confidential company data to net $1.2 million in bets on the prediction platform Polymarket. The case, unsealed this week, centers on claims that Michele Spagnuolo exploited insider access to Google’s internal marketing information to wager on search-related trends for 2025. According to the criminal complaint, Spagnuolo “knew the outcome of these wagers before the trading public did” because he tapped into proprietary data. He was arrested Wednesday in New York and released on a $2.25 million bond, facing charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.

Spagnuolo reportedly placed bets under the username AlphaRacoon, and his string of accurate predictions on search trends caught the attention of Forbes and social media users last December. In one notable instance, he correctly wagered that singer D4vd would be “the #1 searched person on Google” for 2025, despite Polymarket assigning that outcome a “near-zero probability,” the complaint states. He also allegedly bet that Pope Leo XIV and Kendrick Lamar would not appear on Google’s “Year in Search 2025” lists, outcomes that are notoriously difficult to predict. Google defines these rankings by the “highest increase in traffic,” not total search volume, measuring spikes between January 1 and November 25 to identify unique trends.

“Once he won, Spagnuolo then took deliberate steps to conceal his unlawful use of nonpublic information by attempting to obscure the source and ownership of his unlawful proceeds,” prosecutors wrote in the complaint. This case follows a similar one last month, when federal prosecutors charged U. S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with fraud for allegedly making a $400,000 Polymarket bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The charges come amid a broader regulatory tug-of-war over prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Several states have moved to regulate these platforms over insider trading concerns, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and President Donald Trump have pushed back, with the CFTC asserting it has “exclusive” authority over such markets.

Polymarket responded on X, calling itself “the enforcement leader” and claiming its “market integrity infrastructure” flagged Spagnuolo’s activity. “Blockchain trading is transparent, traceable, and bad actors leave footprints,” the company wrote, though it did not address whether bettors are fully aware of that transparency.

Google spokesperson Jaclyn Vazquez told The Verge: “We’re working with law enforcement on their investigation. The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We’ve placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action.”