Zhipu AI Surges as Wall Street Backs China’s Open Models
▼ Summary
– Zhipu AI’s stock surged up to 48% on Monday after it announced it would release its most capable model, GLM-5.2, as open-source software with no usage restrictions, days after the US forced Anthropic to restrict its Claude models.
– Wall Street analysts, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, are betting that China will capture the “value-for-money” AI segment as US frontier models become more expensive and restricted.
– Zhipu’s market value has risen more than tenfold since its January IPO to around HK$489 billion, roughly four times that of domestic rival MiniMax.
– Preliminary community testing suggests GLM-5.2 performs close to Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 on coding and agent tasks, though it is not an independent benchmark.
– An analyst warns that US restrictions on AI models may cause “brain flight” of US-based Chinese-born AI engineers back to Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot.
Zhipu AI is experiencing a remarkable surge in Hong Kong trading, with shares of its listed entity, Knowledge Atlas Technology, jumping as much as 48 percent on Monday before closing roughly 33 percent higher. This rally comes as Wall Street analysts increasingly view Chinese AI firms as the primary beneficiaries of Washington’s tightening restrictions on Anthropic.
The catalyst was impeccable timing. Just days after the US government forced Anthropic to block foreign users from accessing its most powerful Claude models, Zhipu announced it would release GLM-5.2, its latest and most advanced model, as open-source software this week with no usage restrictions. The company framed the move with a pointed message.
“Cutting-edge intelligence should not belong to only a few, nor should it be withdrawn at any time,” Zhipu stated. “It should be open, available, extensible and built to serve every developer.”
Why Wall Street is betting on Zhipu
Analysts responded swiftly. JPMorgan maintained its overweight rating and raised its price target to HK$1,400 from HK$950, while downgrading domestic rival MiniMax. Bank of America initiated coverage on both firms with buy ratings. The consensus thesis is clear: as US frontier models become more expensive and harder to access, China is poised to dominate the “value-for-money” segment with cheap, capable alternatives.
The market has already embraced this narrative. Zhipu’s stock has surged more than tenfold since its January IPO, pushing its market capitalization to roughly HK$489 billion,about four times that of MiniMax. Both companies are now pursuing a second listing on Shanghai’s STAR Market.
Zhipu also demonstrated pricing power to match the hype. In April, it raised cloud API prices by 8 to 17 percent alongside its previous model, marking its second price increase this year.
Open versus closed, and a looming talent shift
The divide is becoming the defining battle line in AI. US labs face mounting pressure to restrict access to their best models, while Chinese firms are doing the opposite, embracing open distribution and winning over cost-conscious enterprises.
Early community testing suggests GLM-5.2, which features a one-million-token context window, performs close to Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 on coding and long-horizon agent tasks. These results are preliminary, however, and not based on independent benchmarks.
There is a sharper edge to this story. Z-Ben Advisors’ Peter Alexander estimates that roughly 40 percent of US-based AI engineers were born in China. The new US directive effectively bars many of them from the systems they helped build, creating what he warns could be a recipe for “brain flight” toward Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot.
The surge reflects sentiment as much as substance, and analyst targets remain bets rather than guarantees. But the direction of the bet is unmistakable: every door the US closes, China is rushing to hold open.
(Source: The Next Web)
