BNP predicts $3.6T US IPO wave to fuel European tech deals

The pending US IPO filings from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic represent a combined pipeline of roughly $3.6 trillion in offerings. According to Ygal el Harrar, global head of equity capital markets for the technology industry at BNP Paribas, this massive wave is set to spark a similar appetite for European tech deals.

“Liquidity attracts liquidity,” el Harrar said during an interview in Paris. “If you’re having big tech companies listing in the US, it’s going to make babies and it’s going to feed the economy.”

The US pipeline is dominated by three heavyweights. SpaceX filed its public S-1 in May, targeting a Nasdaq listing at approximately $1.8 trillion, a move that would make it the largest IPO in history. Anthropic followed with a confidential filing at a $965 billion valuation, and OpenAI came in days later at $852 billion. Combined, these three companies could inject $3.6 trillion in market value onto US exchanges by autumn. SpaceX is expected to price as early as this week, with OpenAI targeting September and Anthropic eyeing October.

The ripple effect is already being felt in Europe. El Harrar, who moved into his new tech ECM role earlier this year as BNP Paribas strengthens its equity capital markets footprint in technology, argues that the sheer scale and excitement of these US mega-IPOs is generating global momentum. At BNP Paribas’s Private Market Track Conference in Paris this month, US investors signaled growing interest in European tech. “We are looking for more great companies in Europe that fit our models,” said Mike Hayes, managing director at Insight Partners.

European tech companies are already moving toward public markets. Bending Spoons, the Milan-based owner of Evernote and WeTransfer, has filed for a Nasdaq listing at a reported $20 billion valuation. Monzo is preparing a London Stock Exchange IPO at £6 to £7 billion, while German quantum computing startup IQM is expected to list on a US exchange around June 2026. Helsing, the European defence AI firm, raised $1.2 billion at an €18 billion valuation and is widely anticipated to go public within two years.

One barrier to more European tech listings, el Harrar noted, is a lack of research coverage for emerging sectors. “For critical but new sectors like quantum, for instance, there is a need for more public awareness and make sure its evolution will be followed and understood,” he said. The implication is clear: European tech companies in categories like quantum computing, defence AI, and deep tech struggle to attract public market investors because analysts are not yet covering those sectors at scale.

It is important to note that the $3.6 trillion figure represents the combined private valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, not confirmed IPO proceeds. Actual market capitalisations at listing could be significantly higher or lower. Some industry voices have warned that three mega-IPOs could absorb so much capital that they crowd out smaller listings rather than encourage them. El Harrar’s thesis that US mega-IPOs will boost European tech appetite is a compelling idea, but it is not yet an established pattern. European tech has historically struggled to match US IPO scale, and the continent’s fragmented stock exchanges remain a structural disadvantage. Whether US investor interest translates into actual European deals remains to be seen.