Will the Games Industry Boom or Bust?
▼ Summary
– The video game industry’s rapid pandemic-era growth has significantly slowed, leading to a debate on whether it is entering a mature, post-growth phase or simply another cyclical downturn.
– One perspective, from Chris Petrovic, argues growth will continue but will be driven by new regions like China and Turkey, evolving business models, and capturing the attention of younger generations.
– The opposing view, from Pejman Mirza-Babaei, suggests the industry may need to redefine success beyond constant financial growth, focusing instead on stability, worker well-being, and creative impact.
– Petrovic highlights that the industry’s historical resilience comes from technological and business model innovation, and it remains a leading form of entertainment despite market consolidation.
– Mirza-Babaei proposes that in a mature market, success could be measured by factors like economic stability for studios, quality of craft, community building, and environmental responsibility, not just revenue.
The video game industry finds itself at a pivotal crossroads. Following a period of explosive sales during the pandemic, the market’s rapid expansion has noticeably slowed, prompting a fundamental debate about its future trajectory. Is this a temporary lull before the next wave of growth, or has the sector reached a level of maturity where the market is largely saturated? The answer will define the coming decade for developers, publishers, and players alike. Two distinct perspectives from industry leaders offer contrasting visions of what lies ahead, one forecasting renewed expansion from new frontiers and the other advocating for a fundamental redefinition of success in a potentially post-growth landscape.
Chris Petrovic, Chief Business Officer at FunPlus, argues that growth is far from over. He views the industry’s history as a series of cycles driven by technological and business model innovation. Past declarations of a platform’s demise, like PC gaming in the early 2000s, were famously overturned by the advent of digital distribution and live services. He points out that while recent seismic events, the pandemic spike, privacy changes, and economic shifts, have created a more mature market, a steady compound annual growth rate is still projected. The key, he suggests, is that future expansion will originate from different geographic and creative hubs.
“Large-scale commercial success is increasingly coming from new and different parts of the world,” Petrovic notes, highlighting emerging development centers in regions like China, Turkey, and Vietnam. He acknowledges the discomfort that comes with this shift and the trend toward market consolidation, where players spend more time in fewer titles. However, he remains confident in the industry’s dynamism, driven by its deep connection to younger, digital-native generations for whom gaming is a primary form of entertainment and socialization. For Petrovic, the industry’s ability to hold a central place in the cultural zeitgeist ensures its continued growth for decades.
In contrast, Dr. Pejman Mirza-Babaei of Ontario Tech University presents a compelling case for preparing for a mature, post-growth phase. He questions the relentless pursuit of “more everything”, more players, more revenue, more titles, as the sole measure of health. If the historic boom is indeed over, he proposes the industry must courageously rethink its definition of success, moving beyond profit metrics to encompass sustainability and human well-being.
“Game development has many advantages in a mature or post-growth economy,” Mirza-Babaei argues. He points to its reliance on creativity over physical resources and its foundation in passionate, community-driven work. In this view, an industry no longer guaranteed endless expansion could focus on stability, quality, and impact. He suggests using a framework like Maslow’s hierarchy of needs to identify what developers truly seek: safety through stable jobs, achievement in their craft, connection with communities, and fulfillment in meaningful work, none of which inherently require infinite growth.
This perspective leads to a broader set of success criteria: economic stability for studios, recognition of quality and craft, support for personal and team development, and a focus on cultural impact and player communities. Crucially, it also includes worker well-being and environmental responsibility as foundational pillars for a sustainable future. Mirza-Babaei acknowledges that shifting away from growth-first thinking is challenging and fraught with fear, but he contends that the alternative, continuing to chase exponential expansion, breeds greater instability. The path forward, he suggests, is to build a resilient industry that can thrive without it, through collective action, kinder practices, and a celebration of art and community alongside commercial performance.
These two viewpoints are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The industry may experience measured growth in new markets while simultaneously evolving its internal values toward greater sustainability. The central takeaway is that the games industry is undergoing a profound moment of reflection, forced to examine its assumptions and decide what it wants to become in its next chapter.
(Source: Games Industry)