80% of Security Flaws Followed by Spikes in Malicious Activity
▼ Summary
– In 80% of cases, spikes in malicious activity targeting edge devices precede the disclosure of new security vulnerabilities (CVEs) within six weeks, according to GreyNoise research.
– GreyNoise analyzed 216 spike events tied to eight enterprise edge vendors, finding 50% led to new CVEs within three weeks and 80% within six weeks.
– The correlation was strongest for Ivanti, SonicWall, Palo Alto Networks, and Fortinet products, while weaker for MikroTik, Citrix, and Cisco.
– Attackers often exploit older flaws during these spikes, either to discover new weaknesses or identify exposed endpoints for future attacks.
– GreyNoise recommends monitoring and blocking scanning activity proactively, as it provides defenders a warning window before actual attacks occur.
New research reveals a startling connection between malicious activity spikes and the emergence of security vulnerabilities, giving defenders a critical early warning system.
A recent study by threat intelligence specialists found that 80% of sudden surges in network scanning, brute-force attempts, and reconnaissance targeting edge devices precede the disclosure of new security flaws within six weeks. These patterns, far from random, follow predictable trends that security teams can leverage for proactive defense.
The findings stem from an extensive analysis of data collected since late 2024, filtering out unreliable signals to focus on 216 confirmed spike events linked to major enterprise vendors. Among these, half correlated with new vulnerabilities within three weeks, while the remaining cases typically surfaced within six. Notably, products from Ivanti, SonicWall, Palo Alto Networks, and Fortinet showed the strongest correlations, while others like Cisco and Citrix exhibited weaker links.
Attackers often exploit older, known vulnerabilities during these reconnaissance phases, likely identifying exposed systems for future attacks or uncovering new weaknesses. Rather than dismissing these attempts as failed breaches, security teams should treat them as early warning signs, what researchers describe as a “mine canary” signaling impending threats.
By monitoring and blocking suspicious scanning activity early, organizations can disrupt attackers’ reconnaissance efforts before they escalate into full-scale exploits. This approach shifts the defensive strategy from reactive patching to preemptive hardening, even when specific vulnerabilities remain undisclosed.
In a parallel development, Google’s Project Zero announced plans to disclose newly discovered flaws within a week of detection, without revealing technical details, to help administrators prepare defenses while vendors develop patches. This move aims to reduce the patch gap without compromising security.
The research underscores a crucial takeaway: malicious activity spikes aren’t just noise, they’re a strategic precursor to emerging threats. Organizations that track and respond to these signals gain a vital advantage in an increasingly hostile cybersecurity landscape.
(Source: BLEEPING COMPUTER)
