Higher Tailpipe Pollution Drives Up US Fuel Costs
▼ Summary
– Americans could pay up to $310 billion extra in gasoline costs over 25 years if tailpipe pollution regulations are repealed, with households spending an average of $83 more annually on energy.
– Eliminating greenhouse gas standards for vehicles may reduce GDP by $710 billion cumulatively by 2050 and result in 110,000 fewer jobs annually over the next 25 years.
– Repealing the standards could lead to up to 700 pollution-related premature deaths per year due to increased soot, smog, and carbon dioxide emissions.
– Without the regulations, zero-emission vehicles would comprise only 55% of new car sales by 2035, compared to 70% if standards remain, increasing gasoline demand and prices.
– The Trump administration’s claim of saving $54 billion annually by repealing regulations ignores climate change costs and assumes lower gas prices, which contradicts basic economic principles of increased demand.
A new analysis reveals that eliminating federal tailpipe pollution regulations could significantly increase fuel costs for American households, while simultaneously hampering economic growth and innovation in the automotive sector. The proposed rollback of greenhouse gas emission standards, which currently push automakers toward greater fuel efficiency and electric vehicle development, may lead to consumers spending billions more on gasoline over the coming decades.
According to research from the nonpartisan policy firm Energy Innovation, Americans could pay an extra $310 billion in fuel expenses over the next 25 years without these standards. For the average household, this translates to roughly $83 more each year in energy costs. The financial impact stems from a slower transition to efficient vehicles, meaning drivers would purchase more gasoline and diesel to cover the same distances.
Sara Baldwin, Energy Innovation’s senior director of electrification, explains that limiting the availability of efficient electric vehicles boosts demand for conventional fuels. “When you are putting fewer efficient electric vehicles on the road, you’re also driving up demand for gasoline and diesel. And as a result of that, households are going to be paying more to drive,” she says. “This will have an adverse impact not just on the US economy, but at the household level, at the kitchen-table level.”
Energy Innovation used an open-source model to project outcomes if greenhouse gas standards for cars and trucks were removed. Their analysis accounted for factors like rising electricity costs and the higher initial price of electric vehicles, yet still found that the economic advantages of cleaner transportation outweigh these considerations.
Investing in efficient vehicle design circulates money through the economy, supporting employment in research, manufacturing, and materials development. Dan O’Brien, a senior modeling analyst at the organization, notes, “That money gets passed around the economy and that results in more jobs, both from the automotive sector [and] also in steel manufacturing and aluminum manufacturing.”
By contrast, sticking with older, less efficient vehicle technology could cause cumulative GDP losses reaching $710 billion by 2050. Employment may also suffer, with up to 110,000 fewer jobs each year over the next quarter-century. Public health is another concern, while electric vehicles still produce some particle pollution from tires and road wear, eliminating tailpipe emissions reduces exposure to carbon dioxide, soot, and smog. The report links a repeal of greenhouse gas standards to as many as 700 additional pollution-related premature deaths annually.
Should the standards be revoked, zero-emission vehicles would represent a smaller share of new car sales. By 2035, only 55 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales would be zero-emission, compared to 70 percent if the regulations remain. With greater oil demand pushing up prices, gasoline could cost 6 cents more per gallon by 2030, increasing to 36 cents by 2040 and 31 cents by 2050. Over time, a typical household might pay $400 extra for gasoline by 2043.
The Trump administration has presented conflicting estimates, suggesting that repealing all greenhouse gas regulations, including those for vehicles and power plants, would save $54 billion per year. However, this projection excludes costs related to climate change impacts and assumes lower future gasoline prices using a limited dataset. Baldwin points out that the administration’s analysis only considers two and a half years of fuel savings, whereas car buyers think about long-term fuel expenses. She adds that gas prices are influenced by global markets, not just U.S. policy.
“To assume that we’re going to see lower gas prices in the future … when you’re increasing demand for that product, that just runs counter to what basic economics tells us,” Baldwin says.
(Source: The Verge)
