Humanoids: The Future That’s Not Quite Here
▼ Summary
– Rodney Brooks warns of a humanoid robot investment bubble, citing billions in venture funding despite doubts about their practical dexterity and usefulness.
– Experts and robotics-focused VCs express skepticism about widespread adoption, predicting it could take over a decade due to technical and safety challenges.
– Safety concerns are significant, especially regarding human-robot interaction in homes and workplaces, with risks of injury or hacking.
– Development timelines are uncertain and complex, with comparisons to the slow progress of self-driving cars and difficulties in scaling the technology.
– Despite current limitations and skepticism, some companies are advancing with pre-orders and research, indicating ongoing interest and potential future markets.
Despite the surge of venture capital flowing into humanoid robotics, a growing chorus of experts is urging caution, pointing to significant technological and safety hurdles that remain unresolved. Rodney Brooks, a respected roboticist and founder of iRobot, recently voiced concerns about an emerging investment bubble, suggesting that these machines lack the necessary dexterity for practical use. His perspective finds support among other robotics investors and AI scientists who remain skeptical about widespread adoption occurring anytime soon.
Fady Saad, a general partner at Cybernetix Ventures, shares this cautious outlook. He questions the immediate market viability for humanoids beyond niche applications like space exploration. Public demonstrations might generate excitement, but Saad emphasizes the gap between impressive prototypes and real-world, revenue-generating use cases. He also highlights pressing safety issues, particularly the risks of heavy machines operating near people in homes or workplaces. The potential for accidents involving children or pets, along with cybersecurity threats like hacking, presents a substantial barrier that the industry must address.
The development timeline for capable humanoids remains highly uncertain, creating a challenge for venture capitalists who operate within fixed fund lifecycles. Sanja Fidler, Nvidia’s vice president of AI research, draws a parallel to the early hype around self-driving cars, noting that initial optimism often precedes a long and difficult path to commercialization. Her colleague, chief scientist Bill Dally, concurs, underscoring the immense complexity of the technology even as Nvidia invests in the underlying infrastructure.
Seth Winterroth of Eclipse Ventures elaborated on the technical difficulties, explaining that humanoids represent an order of magnitude more complex than simpler robotic systems. Managing software for a machine with over sixty degrees of freedom, while also achieving sound unit economics, is a formidable challenge that places the industry in its infancy. Real-world progress has been slow. Tesla’s much-publicized Optimus robot, initially promised for 2023, was revealed in 2024 to be largely teleoperated, with commercial sales now projected for 2026. Similarly, Figure, a startup valued at billions, faces scrutiny over the actual deployment numbers of its humanoids.
This skepticism does not mean the field lacks promise or that development should halt. Brooks himself acknowledges that humanoid robots will eventually arrive, though he predicts they may look different, perhaps equipped with wheels rather than legs, and are still more than a decade away from maturity. In the meantime, several startups are tackling the very dexterity problems he identified. Companies like Proception and Loomia are developing technologies to incorporate advanced touch and manipulation capabilities into robotic systems.
Early market interest, while not indicative of mass adoption, shows there is demand. K-Scale Labs reported receiving over one hundred pre-orders for its humanoid within just five days. Hugging Face experienced a similar surge, recording $1 million in sales for its Reachy Mini desktop robot only days after opening orders, signaling a palpable enthusiasm from developers and early adopters ready to experiment with the technology.
(Source: TechCrunch)
