AI to Fuel 40% Surge in Global Trade by 2040, WTO Reports
▼ Summary
– AI could boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040 if technology access and capacity gaps are bridged, according to a WTO report.
– AI enhances productivity, reduces costs, and opens new markets for businesses through tools like machine learning and automated supply chains.
– The technology expands trade in digitally enabled services, reshaping patterns and creating opportunities for advanced digital economies.
– Without coordinated policies, AI risks exacerbating inequalities, leaving behind those lacking digital infrastructure, skills, or regulations.
– Harmonized international rules and inclusive regulatory frameworks are needed to address data governance, competition, and platform concentration.
A new report from the World Trade Organization suggests that artificial intelligence could drive global trade growth by up to 40% by 2040, though this projection depends on closing major gaps in digital access and regulatory alignment worldwide. The findings, detailed in the WTO’s World Trade Report 2025, emphasize how AI and digital platforms are fundamentally reshaping international commerce.
The study highlights that AI technologies enhance productivity, reduce operational costs, and create pathways into new markets for businesses of all sizes. Companies using AI tools, such as predictive analytics, automated logistics, and intelligent supply chain systems, are seeing measurable gains that contribute to higher trade volumes. Still, these benefits are not guaranteed. Significant disparities in digital infrastructure, technical skills, and policy frameworks between nations could limit AI’s full potential.
Digital trade platforms powered by AI are making it easier for buyers and sellers to connect across borders. These systems streamline everything from shipping and customs to personalized marketing and secure international payments. For small and medium enterprises in particular, these tools lower traditional barriers to entering global markets.
The influence of AI isn’t confined to trade in goods. Services that rely on digital delivery, including IT support, financial analysis, and remote consulting, are expanding rapidly thanks to AI-driven efficiencies. This shift is creating fresh opportunities for economies with strong digital sectors, though it also demands updated policies to address new risks and imbalances.
Without careful and coordinated policy action, the WTO warns, AI could deepen existing inequalities. Nations or businesses without advanced digital networks, modern regulations, or a tech-savvy workforce may struggle to keep pace. The report stresses that bridging the digital divide is essential to ensure that AI-powered trade growth is inclusive and sustainable.
Data governance presents another critical challenge. Issues like privacy, cybersecurity, and cross-border data flows require international cooperation and harmonized rules to prevent trade disputes and build trust among trading partners. The concentration of power among a handful of major digital platforms, often reinforced by sophisticated AI, also raises competition concerns. The WTO urges regulators to foster innovation while guarding against monopolistic behaviors that could exclude smaller players.
Looking forward, the report calls for modernized trade policies that reflect the realities of AI and digital commerce. It encourages WTO members to engage in collaborative efforts, such as the Joint Initiative on E-commerce, to develop fair and forward-looking rules for digital trade.
(Source: Economy Middle East)
