OpenAI’s Record Valuation: Is It Justified?
▼ Summary
– OpenAI is nearing a $500 billion valuation, which would make it the world’s most valuable private company, surpassing giants like SpaceX and Palantir.
– Two separate deals are in play: a SoftBank-led round at $300 billion and a secondary sale of employee shares at the $500 billion valuation, with most cheaper shares already sold.
– An anonymous investor compares this moment to the dawn of the internet, citing it as a major technology shift with outcomes exceeding expectations.
– The investor projects that if ChatGPT reaches 2 billion users and monetizes at $5 per user monthly, it could generate $120 billion in annual revenue, supporting a much higher valuation.
– Despite ambitious projections, experts question OpenAI’s ability to retain users and control costs, while noting its rapid revenue growth and enterprise adoption as positive signs.
The prospect of a $500 billion valuation for OpenAI has ignited intense debate across financial and tech circles, positioning the company to potentially become the world’s most valuable private entity. This staggering figure surpasses giants like SpaceX, ByteDance, and even major public firms such as Palantir, raising questions about how a company with such a significant burn rate could command such a premium.
Behind the eye-catching number lie two distinct transactions: a SoftBank-led funding round valuing OpenAI at $300 billion, expected to close by year’s end, and a secondary sale of employee shares at the far loftier $500 billion mark. Most of the lower-priced shares have already been acquired, leaving investors to compete for the remainder at the elevated valuation.
One anonymous OpenAI investor, bound by a nondisclosure agreement, likened the current moment to the early days of the internet, calling it “one of the biggest technology shifts in history.” This individual emphasized that outcomes continue to exceed even the most optimistic projections.
The investment thesis at the $500 billion level appears deceptively simple. If ChatGPT were to reach 2 billion users and monetize at just $5 per user monthly, half the rate of platforms like Google or Facebook, it would generate $120 billion in annual revenue. That alone, the investor argues, could support a company worth $1.5 trillion, not even accounting for enterprise solutions, agentic systems, or hardware ventures currently in development.
Admittedly, the $5 per user assumption remains speculative. ChatGPT currently boasts 700 million weekly active users, with fewer than 10% paying for the service. OpenAI has not publicly confirmed these figures, and skeptics point to fierce competition from tech titans like Google and Meta. According to Arun Sundararajan, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, the central question is whether OpenAI can both retain its user base and reduce costs enough to achieve such monetization levels.
Investors buying at this valuation are effectively betting that OpenAI will become the next Google or Facebook. For the math to work, an IPO valuing the company above $1 trillion within two to three years may be necessary. Glenn Okun, another NYU business professor, notes that such a leap would place OpenAI among the top ten most valuable public companies almost overnight.
Despite the audacity of these projections, recent performance offers some support. In just the first seven months of 2025, OpenAI doubled its projected annual revenue to $12 billion, suggesting a monthly intake of roughly $1 billion. The company has also seen enterprise adoption surge, now serving 5 million paying business users. Advertising revenue remains another largely untapped opportunity.
To supporters, these indicators reveal a company breaking all conventions. As the anonymous investor noted, “People don’t like unprecedented things… but everything this company has done has been unprecedented.” From its explosive revenue growth to its foundational AI advances, OpenAI continues to defy expectations, making a half-trillion-dollar valuation seem less like fantasy and more like a calculated, if enormous, gamble.
(Source: Wired)
