Can New SEO Startups Outperform Industry Giants?
▼ Summary
– The CEO of Conductor predicts that 95% of AI SEO startups will fail, arguing that established companies like Conductor, Semrush, and Ahrefs have superior resources and experience.
– Smaller “lifestyle” businesses with $1-3M ARR may survive but are unlikely to scale into major enterprise platforms, according to Besmertnik, though Rand Fishkin defends their value for work-life balance.
– Some argue startups have an advantage in AI search by being unburdened by legacy SEO infrastructure and better positioned to innovate for conversational, AI-native solutions.
– Venture capital interest in AI SEO startups may be overhyped, with the market likely favoring modest, capital-efficient companies over unicorns, per Mike Mallazzo.
– The shift to AI search raises questions about tracking new data types, like conversational interactions and zero-click searches, challenging traditional SEO tools built for static web metrics.
The battle between established SEO giants and nimble AI-powered startups is heating up, with industry leaders debating who will dominate the future of search optimization. While veterans argue their scale and experience guarantee victory, emerging players believe their agility and fresh perspectives give them the upper hand in an AI-driven landscape.
Conductor’s CEO recently sparked debate by predicting that 95% of new AI SEO startups will fail, leaving only a handful to compete with industry titans. His reasoning? Established platforms like Conductor, Semrush, and Ahrefs boast vast resources, enterprise-grade infrastructure, and years of search data, advantages that smaller players simply can’t match. With hundreds of engineers and millions in revenue, these incumbents argue they’re better equipped to adapt to AI-driven search changes.
Yet not everyone agrees. Some experts believe legacy SEO tools could become outdated as AI reshapes how users find information. Unlike traditional search, AI chatbots deliver answers conversationally, bypassing static web pages and keyword-based rankings. Startups unburdened by old-school SEO frameworks may have the edge in developing solutions tailored to this new paradigm.
Daniel Rodriguez, cofounder of Beewhisper, argues that winning companies won’t just improve existing tools, they’ll reinvent them. “The next big players won’t build a better Conductor,” he says. “They’ll create AI-native platforms designed for dynamic, conversational search from the ground up.”
Meanwhile, Rand Fishkin of SparkToro champions the “lifestyle business” model, where smaller firms thrive without chasing hypergrowth. He rejects the notion that success means serving Fortune 500 clients, preferring lean, profitable operations that prioritize work-life balance over aggressive scaling.
Venture capital’s role in this space also raises questions. Some skeptics wonder if the flood of funding into AI SEO startups is justified, given the uncertain market size for next-gen analytics tools. Mike Mallazzo of PayPal suggests the real winners will be capital-efficient companies, not just those chasing unicorn status.
A major challenge for all players is data tracking in an AI-first world. Traditional metrics like backlinks and keyword rankings may lose relevance as AI-generated answers dominate. Zero-click searches, where users get instant responses without visiting websites, further complicate visibility tracking. Industry veteran Michael Bonfils highlights the dilemma: “If AI handles the entire consideration phase, how do we measure and optimize for it?”
The future of SEO tools hinges on whether incumbents can pivot fast enough, and whether startups can outmaneuver them with innovative approaches. As search behavior evolves, the winners will be those who master conversational data, adapt to queryless interactions, and solve the visibility gaps left by AI-driven search.
For now, the race is on, and the outcome remains uncertain. One thing’s clear: the SEO landscape is undergoing its biggest transformation in decades, and only the most adaptable will survive.
(Source: Search Engine Journal)
