Game Publishers Hurt by ‘Fixation on Holiday Window,’ Says Newzoo
▼ Summary
– Hollow Knight: Silksong and Borderlands 4 mark the end of the summer doldrums, a period with fewer major game releases from April to August.
– Newzoo reports that publishers cause “avoidable cannibalization” by clustering releases in the same months, particularly February and October.
– Analysis shows that games released from August to November perform 34% worse on average than those from February to May, even after excluding major hits.
– The holiday release window is counterproductive due to overcrowding, while less crowded months like April and May show comparable results for big games.
– Newzoo’s 2025 report predicts a 3.1% rise in the global PC player base and notes Gen Alpha’s growing share, especially on PC.
The summer gaming drought, typically stretching from April through August, often feels like a quiet stretch for blockbuster releases. While plenty of excellent titles still launch during these months, the most anticipated games overwhelmingly cluster around the beginning and end of the year. According to market intelligence firm Newzoo, this pattern represents a significant strategic misstep by publishers, leading to what they term “avoidable cannibalization” as too many major products compete for attention and spending within the same narrow windows.
Newzoo’s analysis, drawn from its newly released 2025 Global Games Market Report, examined AAA single-player games priced at $51 or more that launched on PC, PlayStation, and Xbox between 2021 and 2024. The data reveals a clear concentration of releases in February and October, with 22 and 21 major titles respectively. In contrast, April, May, and July each saw only seven such releases over the same four-year span.
While it may seem logical to target the holiday shopping season or the colder indoor months, Newzoo argues that the industry’s long-standing fixation on the holiday window is ultimately counterproductive. To measure performance, the firm compared player counts during the first three months after launch for games released in different periods. At first glance, February and August appear exceptionally strong, but this is largely due to monumental outliers like Hogwarts Legacy, Elden Ring, and Baldur’s Gate 3. When these record-breaking titles are removed from the dataset, the performance advantage for those months largely disappears.
The holiday period is also more congested than it initially appears. Most August releases occur near the end of the month, while November’s major launches are concentrated in the first half. This creates intense competition within very short timeframes. Meanwhile, games launched in the quieter spring months, April and May, performed comparably to those released during the busier fall season, despite facing less direct competition.
September, in particular, stands out as an underperforming month relative to its crowded calendar. One possible explanation is the overwhelming staying power of certain games, for instance, Baldur’s Gate 3 dominated player attention throughout September 2023, likely impacting the reception of other major releases like Starfield.
Newzoo’s analysis concludes that games launched between August and November performed 34% worse on average than those released from February through May. Even after removing historic hits like Elden Ring, late-year titles still underperformed by 25%. This suggests that spreading out major launches could benefit both publishers and players, reducing market saturation and allowing more titles to find sustained audiences.
The current rhythm of the gaming year often divides into two phases: a high-intensity release period from September to February, and a season of announcements and previews from March through August, anchored by events like GDC, Summer Game Fest, and Gamescom. A more balanced distribution of AAA launches could help avoid overcrowding and give more games room to breathe.
Newzoo’s latest report also highlights several broader trends, including a projected 3.1% year-on-year growth in the global PC player base, reaching 936 million players in 2025. This growth is partly driven by increasing Steam adoption in China and Japan. Additionally, Gen Alpha, those born in 2010 or later, is becoming a more substantial segment of the player base, particularly on PC.
(Source: PC Gamer)
